Bush's Troubles

I haven't posted on politics lately. Primarily because I've been unable to digest everything that's been happening.

Bush's low poll numbers. The administration seems to think that coming out and (counter-)attacking its "Democratic critics" is the solution. I'm not sure that this will work. Bush's poll numbers on the war, whether he lied or misled the country into war, and his honesty numbers didn't result, primarily, from attacks from Democratic critics. Indeed, Bush's numbers have been dropping largely in the absence of high profile Democratic critics. Remember, Kerry in 2004 blasted the handling of the war but defended his vote to authorize the president to use force. But a majority of the public, at the same time, reached the conclusion that the war itself was a mistake. Since the summer of 2004, we'e heard any number of arguments about democracy, elections, constitutions, etc. But in the public mind, the war was about "a grave and gathering threat" to the United States. That, it turned out, wasn't true. Rank-and-file Americans don't care about Iraqi democracy. (CL, I'm waiting for you to argue with me on this one.) They did fear a mushroom cloud smoking gun.

Bush's problem is and will continue to be that there weren't weapons of mass destruction. He told us this was a "grave and gathering" (if not imminent) threat, and that wasn't true. Was he lying? I have my own opinion, but that's irrelevant for this analysis. In terms of mass opinion, this is a simple question: The president has the CIA, etc. He knows things. He can be wrong about things, but is it likely that he was that wrong about something so important to him? No. Ergo, he was lying. Trust in his character destroyed, probably permanently (or until WMD are found in Iraq!).

Bush might have avoided these difficulties, had it not been for Hurricane Katrina. Katrina undercut any claim the president had to strong leadership. It also demonstrated that the administration was not ready for a disaster or, er, um, a terrorist attack, despite all the time since 9/11.

What does Bush have left? Not much, except three more years to experience what unpopular presidents experience. Pain.

What do the Republicans have to build on?

Well, the Democrats are feckless. But the GOP always have that going for them. I'll say what the pundits usually say, but I'll turn it around: The GOP has to come up with a spokesperson and a national platform that is an alternative to Bush. Or 2006, and probably 2008, will be the same for them. Pain.

I don't think the GOP will do that, though.

And the Democrats? Oh, don't get me started. I still don't understand how the Dems lost to this guy in 2004 . . . except for that whole John Kerry is the most electable candidate meme . . . no, no, I can't go there. Too painful.