Dare to Dream?

From Ruy Teixeira's latest report:

"In the most recent Gallup poll, the Democrats had a 16 point lead among registered voters (55-39) in the generic congressional contest, their largest lead on this question since 1982.
The Democrats are also running large leads among independents in the generic Congressional ballot–generally in the 14-22 point range. As far back as I can get data (1982), the Democrats have never had a lead among independents larger than 4 points in an actual election."

A significant problem for Democrats, however, is gerrymandering, especially of the accidental variety. Democratic voters tend to be packed in congressional districts, particuarly in large, lopsidedly Democratic urban areas, wasting lots of votes. Republican voters are much more efficiently distributed across congressional districts. In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 51-48 in the popular vote, but won a majority in nearly 60% of all congressional districts. Combined with the weak competition in congressional elections, it will take a major electoral earthquake to break down all these barriers in the way of Democratic control of Congress. But if these kinds of polls hold, it's possible.