Ominous Bellweather (CA-50)

It's hard to see how Francine Busby's 44% showing in the CA-50 special election yesterday is a cause for optimism as Democrats look forward to the fall elections. The news could not be more unfavorable to Republicans right now: unremitting violence and stalled politics in Iraq; Abramoff plea agreement; DeLay's resignation; immigration implosion. The district's own Republican incumbent had just been jailed for bribery and corruption.

Despite all those advantages, Busby in 2006 polled no better in the district than John Kerry did in 2004. To top it off, turnout was very light. If Democrats are energized and Republicans are demoralized, there was no sign of it here. Sure, Busby improved on her standing from last time around. But if the presidential vote of '04 was an indicator of partisanship,in the end, CA-50 voters stood pat right along partisan lines.