Ford Corker 24-7
A new tidbit for you congressional election horserace junkies: local NPR reported Tuesday that the Ford campaign has released detailed internal polls showing Harold Ford, Jr., with a close, within-the-margin-of-error lead over Corker, 44-42. In their breakdown, Corker had a wide lead of about 40 points with self-described "conservatives," but Ford had a similarly wide lead with the smaller number of "liberals," and a stunning 20 point edge with the 1/3 of the electorate describing itself as "moderate."
Now, these are internals, so take them with a BIG grain of salt. The Corker campaign said that their internals paint a very different picture, but they refused to release them. I don't know that I believe that Ford actually has a lead in this race, but Corker's refusal to share his internal polls might suggest that there really has been some movement toward Ford over the last several weeks. This seat might actually be in play after all.
posted by tenaciousmcd @ 12:32 PM
2 Comments:
This is in keeping with the usual pattern this year: Democratic candidates have been trumpeting their interal polls and Republican candidates have been keeping theirs under wraps. As Amy Walters of the Cook Political Report has observed:
"Since the beginning of this year, we have seen 38 polls released by Democrats, or Democratic-related groups, while we have seen just five public polls released by Republicans or Republican-related groups."
One should never take any individual internal poll on its face, because it is only released when it shows the desired results. But the larger pattern is meaningful, and it looks like Ford/Corker is fitting right into it.
I heard on NPR this morning that Meet the Press has been trying to get Corker and Ford on the show for a debate. Ford basically said anytime; Corker is still trying to look over his schedule. Ford wants to have seven debates; Corker is still looking over his schedule.
I am always a little suspect of candidates who have lots of rhetoric but eschew opportunities to meet the opposition in a public open forum to discuss the issues.
I have basically quit watching TV, so I don't know if either have begun the attack ads yet. Unless Ford somehow has a major breakdown, or if Corker can frame Ford's candidacy as ultra liberal (or even possibly evoke an emotional connection between him and his corrupt uncle), I think Ford will come out on top.
Scott (TMCD's cuz)
Post a Comment
<< Home