Fighting the Last War

McCain launched his 2008 candidacy for president with an aggressive effort to shore up his right flank. He's done everything he can--hugging the president, groveling to the religious right, repudiating wholesale all the issue stances that made him a "maverick" back in 2000.

But recent polling from the Cook Political report shows that McCain's greatest vulnerability is on his left, not his right. Guiliani just kills him. Cook polls Republicans about their first choice for president, and McCain fares quite well when Guiliani is not listed as an option. McCain comes in first, with a 17 percentage point margin over Gingrich (his next rival). But when respondents are permitted to choose Guiliani, he vaults ahead of McCain into first place by nearly 10 percentage points. The other candidates don't move that much when the options shift. Clearly, Guiliani siphons support right out of McCain.

This result suggests (at least in the current field) that McCain's greatest vulnerability is to a candidate on his left, not his right. Depite all his pathetic flip-flopping, he has never succeeded in winning over conservatives. But his strategy has tarnished him with his actual base, moderate Republicans and independents. If these early polls are to be believed, they will jump ship right to Guiliani, when given the option.