Ticking Time Bomb
It's entirely possible that Iraq will wind up destroying a Democratic presidency, as well. None of the major Democratic candidates are prepared to accept the potential consequences of a full pull-out. Once they're in office it could well be more of the same--drip-drip-drip of casualties & depressing daily news, with no end in sight. The Democratic base will be impatient & outraged, which will drive down the president's support, as has happened with approval ratings of the Democratic Congress. But the fear of what might happen in the wake of a pull-out could well keep them from taking any bold action.
It's pure speculation at this point, but GWB may well have ensured political disaster for the next president, regardless of party.
posted by Frances @ 5:33 PM
2 Comments:
I sincerely hope that if a Dem wins, (s)he recognizes that a dramatic change of course is necessary once on office. The scenario works like this: new Demprez says "Now that we've got access to previously classified information, we've come to know that the situation on the ground in Iraq is far more grave than the Bush administration ever let on. The only thing we can do is begin a full withdrawal immediately."
As Machiavelli knew, you've got to take your lumps early and all at once and then find a way to move on to something else.
The fact is there are no good winning options for any President, only degrees of failure. I agree with TMcD. Point out the truth -- that Iraq is much worse then we've been led to believe (which is undoubtedly true), we're only going to make it worse, get out as soon as possible, take the flack, and have time to recover by the next election. Otherwise it will be the drip, drip, drip of failure, for which the next president will be blamed for anyway at the end of four years. The "pullout" should probably include leaving forces in friendly Kurdistan to keep Turkey from invading, but that's not Iraq anymore.
At any rate, there is a good reason why the next generation of Americans will call Bush's War of Error the greatest military blunder in our history.
The rest of the world sees it too. I went to a meeting on the anniversary of Nagasaki at which a panel of 3 Italians (2 profs and a journalist) talked about the new American base planned in Vicenza. All matter-of-factly talked of the War in Iraq as an utter and irreversible failure in the same breath as Vietnam, albeit one that this time has left their neck of the woods much less safe. Their question: do they really want another American airbase south of the Alps that is stategically aimed at the oil resources of the Middle East and Africa, one that will involve them in America's disasterous foreign policy?
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