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Don't call it a comeback . . . .

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Wacky Wednesday (edited)

OK, that was fun. I have to say that only the Democratic party could design an electoral system so . . . perplexing. HRC wins most of the larger states, but splits the delegates with BO. BO runs up a string of victories in primaries and caucuses in western states--Colorado, Idaho (?), North Dakota--and in the south. There sure are a lot of Democratic voters out there who don't want to vote for HRC, no?

Does HRC really think more debates is the answer (for her)?

On the Democratic side, my big problem now is that there isn't polling in the next round of states, is there? I mean, no one polls states post-Super Tuesday, do they? If you're the BO campaign, which March 4 state is better--Ohio or Texas?

Will the nightmare vision going to come true?

On the GOP side, Limbaugh's nemesis continues toward the nomination. I've been hearing a lot of talk about how Huckabee takes just enough support from Romney to guarantee McCain's victory. There were some states where McCain won and where Romney + Huckabee > McCain. But it looks like they were mostly Border states--Oklahoma, Missouri, Delaware. Does Romney win those if not for Huckabee? The one exception is California, where Romney + Huckabee > McCain by three percentage points. But again, does Romney get all of Huck's votes if he's not there? I'm not seeing Huckabee as Romney spoiler in the results from last night. (This paragraph was edited.)

The talk now is that Romney drops out. If that happens, the GOP field would be the conservative chattering class's two least favorite candidates (apologies to Ron Paul). That's a weird result.


At 8:00 AM, Blogger Frances said...

I've never been happier to have been wrong about anything! Last night Obama did a lot better than I was expecting. Considering that he was down in almost every polled state less than a week ago, he closed magnificently.

Among the swing states, he didn't lose Missouri. And his margins everwhere were so formidable that he effectively prevented HRC from declaring victory. He even got 40% in NY.

So as far as pledged delegates go, we might as well have never held the first primary. They're still TIED: 632 pledged delegates for HRC, 626 for Obama.

Number Three's nightmare vision is quickly materializing. It looks more likely than not now that this race is going to be decided by the super delegates and, probably, a dispute over Florida and Michigan.


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