Don't call it a comeback . . . .
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2 Comments:
Why is McCain winning? I'm truly and exceedingly shocked by this.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Hopefully, when you put them on the stage next to each other it will end this race, but for him to be winning at this point is truly shocking. Moreover, my friend made the point that Obama didn't exactly blow minds during the Democratic primary debates, despite his good looks and smooth words.
So I remain a bit befuddled. I'm still thinking like a 65% chance of an Obama win, but I was thinking 90% last month.
Is half this country going to kill itself if Obama loses?
We had to do introductions in one of our law school class the other day as part of an exercise, and you had to name 'someone you admire'. Some girl chose Obama and talked about how inspiring he is, and blah blah blah. . .I've never understood this hero worship of a politician, but I really fear for people with this misplaced sense of destiny if it doesn't come true.
As much as the GOP has run this country into an eight-year ditch while demonizing half of the country as un-American, I think that girl is entitled to a little admiration and hope. Even if Obama might not be a man of "destiny," he's the first real bright spot the political world has seen in a decade.
I too still think Obama is going to win, but I've begun to wonder if the recent polls reflect a country that really isn't ready for a black president and is looking for even the lamest excuse not to choose one. All McCain has to do is show a pulse, pick a stunt VP, and sling some smears around, and the swing voters swoon.
Maybe that's too cynical. But we shouldn't underestimate the difficulty of electing a black president in a country which--in its entire history--has only sent five African Americans to the Senate. Two of those were chosen by a black controlled MS legislature during Reconstruction, and only one of the five (Edward Brooke R-MA) ever won a second term. That number 5 is less than 1/3 the number of women in the Senate (16) right now. Only two blacks have ever been elected a state governor (Doug Wilder & Duval Patrick). Think about that.
If Obama wins, it will truly be inspiring, a feat that just a few years ago would have seemed impossible. And yet, all of us, and the media, are running around acting as if he should be up by 20 points. It's a miracle things are dead even right now. But we've got the better candidate on the merits, we've got the economy, the war, and we've got George W. Bush at 28%. The other side can't even answer a simple question without either lying or drooling. This is going to be a nail biter, but if there's a year for hope, this is it.
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