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Sunday, November 02, 2008

Predictions 2008

I've been waiting on #3 to do this post to no avail. Maybe he'll man-up in comments. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for Tuesday:

Pop Vote: Obama 53% McCain 45% (Bob Barr finishes 3rd, ahead of Nader)

Electoral College: Obama 364 McCain 174
Obama will hold all Kerry states from 2004 and add CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NM, NV, OH, VA.
McCain will win AZ, GA, MO, MT, ND, among the "swing states."

In key Senate races, Dems will pick up 7 seats:
AK: Begich beats Stevens
CO: Udall beats Schaeffer
NC: Hagan beats Dole
NH: Shaheen beats Sununu
NM: Udall beats Pearce
OR: Merkley beats Smith
VA: Warner beats Gilmore

It will break my heart, but Al Franken will lose a narrow race to Norm Coleman in MN. In other sad news, Mitch McConnell will hold on in KY, and so will Saxby Chambliss in GA.

Dems will pick up 21 seats in the House.


At 7:47 AM, Blogger Number Three said...

Predictions are so 2004, when the election was actually going to be close. Watching "The McLaughlin Group" last night, you could tell who was a GOPper by who said the election is "too close to call." (Except the nubile yet evil Ms. Crowley, who called it for McCain.)

I am working on my own special election post (that is special ELECTION post and not SPECIAL ELECTION post, if you get my drift).

But here are some predictions, if the readership of this blog insists:

Obama wins 51% of the popular vote but wins by a margin of 7 points (Obama 51, McCain 44).

EVs is hard. I think Obama breaks 300. (The538 had 311 of last night (I believe it was 311).) TMcD is correct that Obama covers the Kerry states. He is also correct that Obama picks up CO, IA, NM, OH, and VA. I am not so sure about IN, NC, and NV. To win IN or NC would be quite an achievement. I think FL probably breaks for Obama based on turnout.

Senate seats: VA, CO, and NM have been clear Dem pick ups for a while now. OR and NH have moved into the Dem column. I'm nervous in NC--those last minute attacks are pretty harsh, and given the closeness at the presidential level, hard to predict. I think that a weak incumbent loses in this environment, though, so NC goes Dem. The latest polling out of AK looks bad for the Hulk. So Stevens loses. (First Alaska Dem elected to the Senate since 1974, I believe.)

I actually think Franken wins, as GOP dissatisfaction hurts Coleman and inflates third-party voting. I think Franken wins with a mere 39% of the vote.

I also think that either McConnell in KY or, more likely, Chambliss in GA goes down. It's hard to imagine that many of those new Obama voters in GA are pulling the Chambliss lever . . . if they vote down ballot at all.

I predict a bigger House pick-up than 21, but I don't have any idea how many more. I think that the House is really the bigger story going into the election but because it's so difficult to cover (so many races, so many faces) that the media has missed it.

So my disagreements with TMcD: Obama doesn't win IN or NC. Franken wins in the MN Senate race; Martin pulls out a close one in the GA Senate race; more than 21 plus Democratic House seats.

At 9:32 AM, Blogger tenaciousmcd said...

Way to man-up. So I took the slight "over" bet and you took the slight "under." The state I think you're most likely wrong about is NV, which looks solid Obama by the polling. IN and NC are riskier pics, but what's the fun if you don't pick a couple of upsets? And if he wins by 7-8, he'll get a least a couple of toughies. Could just as easily be MO and GA. But I'm guessing not.

I'd also be really thrilled to see Franken win, but man is that race a nailbiter! And then there's that fearmongering piece of shit, Saxby Chambliss. He's in trouble, but the polls I've seen say he's still got a 5 point cushion against the Obama turnout. We'll see.


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