Feedback Oops

Here's something I've been thinking about lately.

I almost always underestimate the amount of time something (a task, anything, really) is going to take. This is a problem at work, where I am always behind schedule. But also at home, when I think a particular chore will take "one hour," and it takes two, that sets me back. And it's not like I have a lot of "free time."

So you would think that I would build that into my estimates, at some point. IOW, I would start to say to myself that if I think Task A will take one hour, I should set aside two for it. That way, I can make plans accordingly.

But of course, that doesn't work. Because once I know that I've overestimated in an effort not to underestimate, I don't work quickly at Task A and try to get it done in less time. (I'm not chief engineer Scottie.) I usually slow down. Which means that my overestimate becomes an underestimate because I knew it was an overestimate and therefore I felt no great urgency.

Follow me so far?

This is even a worse problem when other people are involved. IOW, if you can't fool yourself, how are you going to fool anybody else? We agree that the meeting will start at 8:30 sharp. But that's soft. You know that I will tolerate your being five minutes late. So you start from the belief that 8:35 is the time you're supposed to show up. That means that you endeavor to arrive at that time. And, in turn, anything that delays you delays you past 8:35, not 8:30--because you never intended to show up then.

But I know that you won't show up at 8:30; so I dally, myself, and again, anything that pushes me back, that just makes the meeting start later.

Now, no one gets angry that the 8:30 starts at 8:45. Everyone "knows" that the scheduled time is not the actual time that a meeting starts. Everyone "blocks out" 90 minutes for an hour meeting.

But if hour long meetings take 90 minutes, then the work day is not eight hours (stay with me--it could be ten or twelve), but only two-thirds that length. That's how much slack is built in by the inefficiency.

Now, again, one "knows" this. So one plans on only doing two-thirds what one believes could be accomplished in the workday. But again, the feedback loop is that now I "know" that I have plenty of time, and therefore I dally. And get less than two-thirds done.

I can't see a way out of the loop.

It's no wonder that Peter Drucker identified the most important skill of an effective executive as time management.

Now I have to run--because I'm late for work. But who shows up on time, right?