What If? Eugene McCarthy Version

According to the Sandbrook biography, McCarthy's independent run for the White House in 1976 could have shifted the election to Ford had McCarthy been able to get himself on the New York ballot--where his polling numbers suggested that he would have drawn enough liberal support from Carter to give the state's electoral votes to Ford.

If Ford wins in 1976, then a Republican is in the White House for those "malaise" years in the late 1970s, post-Watergate, post-Vietnam. Ford has to deal with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian hostage crisis--assuming, as I think one should, that these events would have occurred under Ford's watch. If that was the case, then could the Republican Reagan have ever been elected in 1980? Or would the country have looked to a Democrat after 12 years of G.O.P. presidents? And if Reagan isn't elected in 1980, who is? Not Jimmy Carter. My guess: Teddy Kennedy. Given his support in the Democratic primaries in 1980, I think he would have been a strong candidate in the alternate universe primaries, and the Democratic nominee in alternate-1980.

The strange thing here is that McCarthy hated the Kennedys, and this would have been an ironic outcome, had it come out that way.

I hate to speculate any further, but one should ask whether Paul Volker becomes head of the Fed under Ford (nominated by Carter in 1979). It was Volker, of course, who raised interest rates to (I think) 18% to short-circuit inflation, causing economic pain in the short-run but triggering, with other factors (of course), the 1980's boom. If Volker isn't at the Fed, who is? If the Fed is not as counter-inflationary in that period (esp. 1979-1981), what happens to the U.S. economy? Runaway inflation? If so, then where are we today?

I'll let Curat Lex ponder the international, Cold War consequences of a Ford victory in 1976.