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Friday, February 02, 2007

More Headwinds for the Hegemon

If there is one thing that History teaches us, it is that every hegemonic power eventually gets ganged up on and knocked off its perch. In this never ending game of King on the Mountain, History also teaches us that similarity in constitution amongst Vassal-states, even those with democracies, is no guarantee that the Vassals won’t eventually tire of the King’s self-interested actions and turn against him, especially if the King keeps resorting to brazen acts of military force to protect his self-interest. The alliances do not break down over night; rather, it usually takes years, or even decades, for the two to grow slowly, inexorably apart.

A good sign that a Vassal state is beginning to be dissatisfied and less cooperative than it once was is that it begins to put up small road blocks in the way of the King’s desires, especially in matters of military and economic cooperation, and these begin to create a headwind of opposition that challenge the King’s authority and position. Often, the King then responds with punitive measures to keep his Vassal in line, and this only causes the Vassal and other Vassals to resent and to oppose the King even more, which in turn leads to more roadblocks and headwinds and punitive measures. Eventually the Vassals even begin to foster closer ties with the enemies of the King. Finally, the King has a military blunder that not only weakens himself, but also outrages his Vassal states so much that they finally desert him or even unite with his enemies to push him off the mountain.

Those left standing then turn on each other and after a series of wars for the top of the mountain, a new Nation-King emerges – usually the one who sits on the sidelines just below the peak biding his time while all the others weaken themselves by struggling with the previous King and each other; then, while they are busy locked in a struggle with each other, he suddenly rushes upon them and pushes them all off the top and then assumes the mantle of King of the Mountain himself and the entire process plays itself out again.

There is no question right now that the US is the world’s Hegemon. The questions for us, then, are how do we avoid all the surrounding states ganging up on us and what are the signs that this is happening? One sure sign is the question of basing rights amongst allies. In an online chat session yesterday discussing his essay “Democracy v. Empire”, Chalmers Johnson revealed that, “… a grass roots movement in Italy seems well on its way to evicting the U.S. Air Force from Aviano Air Base." When we recall that a few hours south of Aviano (if the Autostrada isn’t backed up) the US is trying to expand another military base at Vicenza, Italy to service Aviano and that this base expansion is also being protested, then these are good signs that one of our Vassals is beginning to put up roadblocks that are creating headwinds for us. When we further recognize that the US has plans on the table right now for widening the wars in the Middle East to Iran and possibly Syria, despite the fact we are weakened from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and this will further weaken us and isolate us from our allies, and when we consider that the US is now the largest debtor nation and relies upon the good graces of Japan and China to finance our economy (including the military), then the argument can be made that the US is in a very precarious position right now, thanks to our own Kaiser wannabe.

Another interesting question might be who is the crouching power waiting in the wings to supplant the US? My money's on China.

2 Comments:

At 11:05 AM, Blogger Number Three said...

Is it standard for hegemons to pursue completely irrational policies, or is that special to our case?

Because the way it looks to me, before summer we might be fighting Shia in Iran and Sunni in Iraq, while trying to protect "friendly" Sunni regimes in the region from violence spilling over from Iraq and trying to stabilize a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. All at the same time.

 
At 11:30 AM, Blogger Paul said...

It's pretty standard that all hegemones (despite Constitution) eventually overestimate their own power and position and underestimate the consequences of their arrogant behavior. In the West the first documented case is found in Agamemnon, it goes right on through to the Athenians' disastrous Sicilian Expedition...Napoleon....I think nothing has surpassed the Iliad's poetic description of the irresistible divine power of self-delusion -- Zeus sends his winged daughter Ate (Blinding Ruin) to shut the eyes of Agamemnon to his folly and once he is possessed there is nothing he or anyone else can do to change his mind. Even the mellifluous tongue of the wise old Nestor fails to persuade. At this point, Ate seems to be firmly ensconced in Bush's mind, and the only way to stop him is for the Congress to get a spine and "frag" him. That means impeachment.

By the way, if you want a flavor of the image of America and the opposition to us in Northern Italy right now, check out this web site, which has been set up to organize another mass demonstration against the expansion of Dal Molin. The movement is also morphing to team up with the local grassroots movement against Aviano. A few months ago the Vicentini by themselves had a demonstration (manifestazione) that wound 15 kilometers though the Vicenza (I never bothered to mention this one, but it was huge). With the folks from Aviano and from many other parts of Italy coming, I bet the one they have planned for February 17 easily exceeds100,000 demonstrators and takes over the train line all the way from Milan to Venice (and Vicenza only has a population of about 120,000). It will be impossible for the local politicians of Vicenza and the American military to ignore this. So, the Congress better do all it can to stop Bush from striking Iran, otherwise all the military bases in Western Europe and many elsewhere around the globe will become an intolerable stench in the nostrils of the locals.

 

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