More Headwinds for the Hegemon

If there is one thing that History teaches us, it is that every hegemonic power eventually gets ganged up on and knocked off its perch. In this never ending game of King on the Mountain, History also teaches us that similarity in constitution amongst Vassal-states, even those with democracies, is no guarantee that the Vassals won’t eventually tire of the King’s self-interested actions and turn against him, especially if the King keeps resorting to brazen acts of military force to protect his self-interest. The alliances do not break down over night; rather, it usually takes years, or even decades, for the two to grow slowly, inexorably apart.

A good sign that a Vassal state is beginning to be dissatisfied and less cooperative than it once was is that it begins to put up small road blocks in the way of the King’s desires, especially in matters of military and economic cooperation, and these begin to create a headwind of opposition that challenge the King’s authority and position. Often, the King then responds with punitive measures to keep his Vassal in line, and this only causes the Vassal and other Vassals to resent and to oppose the King even more, which in turn leads to more roadblocks and headwinds and punitive measures. Eventually the Vassals even begin to foster closer ties with the enemies of the King. Finally, the King has a military blunder that not only weakens himself, but also outrages his Vassal states so much that they finally desert him or even unite with his enemies to push him off the mountain.

Those left standing then turn on each other and after a series of wars for the top of the mountain, a new Nation-King emerges – usually the one who sits on the sidelines just below the peak biding his time while all the others weaken themselves by struggling with the previous King and each other; then, while they are busy locked in a struggle with each other, he suddenly rushes upon them and pushes them all off the top and then assumes the mantle of King of the Mountain himself and the entire process plays itself out again.

There is no question right now that the US is the world’s Hegemon. The questions for us, then, are how do we avoid all the surrounding states ganging up on us and what are the signs that this is happening? One sure sign is the question of basing rights amongst allies. In an online chat session yesterday discussing his essay “Democracy v. Empire”, Chalmers Johnson revealed that, “… a grass roots movement in Italy seems well on its way to evicting the U.S. Air Force from Aviano Air Base." When we recall that a few hours south of Aviano (if the Autostrada isn’t backed up) the US is trying to expand another military base at Vicenza, Italy to service Aviano and that this base expansion is also being protested, then these are good signs that one of our Vassals is beginning to put up roadblocks that are creating headwinds for us. When we further recognize that the US has plans on the table right now for widening the wars in the Middle East to Iran and possibly Syria, despite the fact we are weakened from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and this will further weaken us and isolate us from our allies, and when we consider that the US is now the largest debtor nation and relies upon the good graces of Japan and China to finance our economy (including the military), then the argument can be made that the US is in a very precarious position right now, thanks to our own Kaiser wannabe.

Another interesting question might be who is the crouching power waiting in the wings to supplant the US? My money's on China.