Bushismo

There's an excellent article over at The American Prospect on Bush's handling of American foreign policy and the likely outcome -- WWIII. Unless some drastic steps are taken to avert our current direction, something big's gotta give in the next 9 months, what with:

1. Turkey amassing troops on the border of Iraq, lobbing shells over there, and making cross-border incursions. When these prove ineffectual, as they will, if they send in a large ground force, the outcome will proceed in unpredictable and inflammatory ways. Once one nation's army goes in, then others will be tempted to follow suit. One can easily imagine that the US and Turkey have had secret talks about rewarding Turkey with parts of northern Iraq if they support a US strike on Iran.

2. The US has designated Iran's army a terrorist organization, has imposed a new round of unilateral economic sanctions, and is fabricating or exaggerating Iran's threat to the US, especially to our soldiers in Iraq. The Bush administration is also refusing to talk with the Iranian leaders in any meaningful way and is angling for regime change by supporting groups within Iran to destabilize it. The Bush administration has also, in the latest round of budget talks, requested additional funds to equip Stealth Bombers with bunker-buster bombs for a pressing need, which can only be to bomb Iran.

3. Bush himself, in what seemed liked unscripted comments, referred to the present situation in Iran as one that could lead to WWWIII (at least he's not so whacked like some on the wing-nut right as to call it WWIV). This was significant because the comments were unguarded and akin to a nervous tick. They reveal his mindset and the types of conversations he's having in the oval office with The Dick, who by the way recently rachetted up his rhetoric on Iran in ways that sound eerily similar to his pronouncements on Iraq prior to our invasion of that country.

4. Russia is afraid of US expansion of army bases and missile defense systems into Eastern Europe, especially the area of the Caspian Sea, and is positioning itself to oppose the US in any way possible. This includes siding with Iran.

5. Some South American countries (Cuba, Venezuela...) are also looking to knock the US down a peg. They will side with Iran and Iran's allies.

As the Chinese proverb has it, we live in interesting times. Dangerously interesting. Speaking of the Chinese, not only are they keeping the US dollar from hitting an even lower rock bottom, their economy just jumped over Germany's. If we bomb Iran and start WWIII, they will probably do quite well when all the dust settles -- this time they'll be the ones who sit back and let each side whack at each other for a while.

Update I: WaPo is running this article today in which oil industry experts are quoted as saying a strike on Iran is unlikely because it would cause oil prices to surge. Since when have Bush, Cheney and the neocons done anything but heap scorn upon real experts? Besides, I hear Bush likes surges.

Update II: Oil is trading in Asia today at a new record above $92/barrel in response to the US's new sanctions on Iran. This is getting awfully close to the record price in 1980 in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars.