Freedom from Blog

Don't call it a comeback . . . .

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Only . . . If

I can buy that the Clinton campaign can't win Democratic caucuses, because those are party activists, super-liburuls (!). I can buy that, like tonite, the Clinton campaign can't win open primaries, because she can't win independents or Republicans. But if she can't win either . . . if she can only win white women and low-information Democratic voters . . . in closed primaries . . . if that's all she can win . . . only white (Democratic) women . . . then what's the rationale?


At 11:38 PM, Blogger tenaciousmcd said...

She really got thumped tonight. A 15 point margin is much bigger than any poll I saw (and the frequently wrong ARG's Clinton +6 was waaaaay off). This was a state where she should have been competitive, where she invested some resources, and where she went hard core neg. HRC's problem is that she's trailing in the 4th quarter with only a run offense. They don't look good when they start throwing big bombs, but they don't have much left in the playbook.

Not surprisingly, she's getting lots of bad buzz on the cable shows now. Fineman and Mitchell looked incredulous when they reported the Mark Penn spin that her scorched earth tactics had actually worked to keep the margin down, since WI was closer than VA/MD. Huh? If this is all they got, they are in big trouble. She could still pull off TX, OH, PA, but I can't imagine she'd win by much, not enough to close that delegate gap. And she could lose two of three.

I thought Saint John looked a little better tonight than a week ago, but his tone is still a loser. Dyspeptic old man out to crush your hope. Obama almost TRIPLED his vote in WI!!. Even HRC beat him handily in side by side. OK, so the GOP race is mostly done, depressing turnout. But Obama won with a higher % of the party vote than McCain did too (if slightly smaller margin--15 vs. 17). This looks like a pattern. McCain may have his nom wrapped up, but Obama is still outperforming him in state after state.

McCain's "eloquent but empty talk of change" is a decent line, but it is super risky. All Obama needs to do is show he can stand toe to toe with McCain in policy debates and McCain is sunk. While HRC has a slight policy edge on Obama, McCain will not, especially once you play the 100 years in Iraq clip over and over. I feel good tonight.


Post a Comment

<< Home