Election Prognostications

Anyone have any predictions about the upcoming elections? I imagine the lower gas prices are going to take away a lot of the angst at the polls and this can only hurt the Dem’s chances (although I’ve read some analyses that say this is overblown). I also have to wonder about the rumors of the October surprise reportedly promised by Rove and company. What could it be? With all the talk this week about Osama, Pakistan and Musharraf, I have to wonder whether or not we’re being set up for a pending surprise announcement that bin Laden or al-Zawahiri have been captured, but they’ve only just got around to publicizing it for purely “security reasons.” The only other big surprise (not that it would be a real surprise) I can think of is an attack on Iran, but that seems unlikely to me until next Spring since thus far the Iran story has eerily paralleled the Iraq saga, and why deviate from that marvelous template now? At any rate, even with the 75% disapproval of the Congress (which doesn’t tell me whether people in their hearts think the Democrats will do better), with gas prices lower, with all the money the Republicans are going to pour into negative attacks down the home stretch, with the Republicans having gerrymandered several states, with the traditional media’s kid gloves with these guys, with Americans’ inability to admit that we’ve already lost in Iraq (undoubtedly the argument that we can still win if we send more troops will be tried and fail before we pack it in), with Americans still traumatized and fearful and thus susceptible to warmongering demagogues, with the Republicans ability to have close-calls always miraculously go their way upon a recount, and with the inevitable October surprise, I hate to be a pessimist, but I think it unlikely the Democrats will win either chamber. But, please, someone tell this political hack that I am wrong and why.