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Friday, January 04, 2008

Obligatory Star Wars Analogy

Remember what happened after the plucky Rebel Alliance, on the strength of all those young and first-time voters, blew up the Death Star? Do you? Yes, it was called The Empire Strikes Back. Maybe New Hampshire isn't (quite) the Ice Planet Hoth, but my guess is that the Clinton Empire will attack Obama in the Granite State like AT-AT walkers firing on those power generators.

The Ewoks ain't dancing yet, folks.

The big questions: (1) how traceable to the Clintons will these attacks be? and (2) what will the substance of the attacks be?

(1) My guess is that the attacks will have to come from the Big Dog himself. HRC herself has to be careful--they've spent all that time trying to humanize her, after all. The attempts to attack through surrogates have been, mostly, non-starters.

(2) How to attack? The experience issue has been a bomb for the Clintons, mainly because few people actually buy that being First Lady is meaningful experience. (My guess.) The "he's a Muslim" attack--which I heard some of, in Michigan, for the holidays, btw--can't come from the campaign. Unelectable? That won't fly, will it?

I'm genuinely curious to see what happens next.

Btw, did Howard Dean lay the groundwork for last night's Obama victory? Dean failed, of course, in mobilizing young and first-time voters, and it looks like Obama succeeded where Dean failed (like Luke succeeded where Anakin failed). But did the Obama campaign learn from the failures of the Dean campaign? That's something I wish an enterprising journo would pursue.


At 9:54 AM, Blogger tenaciousmcd said...

HRC is in a bind. One implication of Iowa: voters on both sides are hungry for human "decency." Dems and Indies want to believe there is hope for America, wingnuts want to believe that denying evolution and supporting Bush policies doesn't make them eeevil.

Going highly negative will hurt HRC badly, more than Obama. And Bill has already tried that tack in Iowa and it didn't sell. You know, I love me some Bill Clinton. But even I have been getting pissed at the Big Dog for his comments on Charlie Rose, etc.


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