Gut reaction, yes. I think he needs a couple-three more good years, but I think he makes it based on being a very-good-to-great hitter for a long time, and that he also gets subconscious voter credit for never being implicated in the Steroid Era.
With 2-3 more solid seasons, Thome will be very close to 300 HR, given that he's at 512 or 513 now. With 600 HR, I think it gets very hard to keep him out of the Hall, unless some steroid allegations arise--and having followed Thome's career (in Cleveland, at least), I don't think that he ever bulked up in the way that would make one suspicious. So I tend to agree--a few solid seasons and his case becomes much better.
I think he should be in, but he's never won an MVP or even been in the top 3 of voting. He also never won a championship. His counting stats are very good, and 600 home runs is hard to deny, but those are the kind of things voters hold against you. I think he's like 60% chance of making it assuming a couple of good seasons but I don't think he'd make it now. His most comparable hitters list on Baseball-Reference is not great:
# Jose Canseco (863) # Carlos Delgado (861) # Manny Ramirez (845) # Willie Stargell (837) * # Willie McCovey (837) * # Juan Gonzalez (834) # Mark McGwire (826) # Fred McGriff (819)
That's 5 non hall of famers among the top 8. not confidence inspiring.
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3 Comments:
Gut reaction, yes. I think he needs a couple-three more good years, but I think he makes it based on being a very-good-to-great hitter for a long time, and that he also gets subconscious voter credit for never being implicated in the Steroid Era.
With 2-3 more solid seasons, Thome will be very close to 300 HR, given that he's at 512 or 513 now. With 600 HR, I think it gets very hard to keep him out of the Hall, unless some steroid allegations arise--and having followed Thome's career (in Cleveland, at least), I don't think that he ever bulked up in the way that would make one suspicious. So I tend to agree--a few solid seasons and his case becomes much better.
I think he should be in, but he's never won an MVP or even been in the top 3 of voting. He also never won a championship. His counting stats are very good, and 600 home runs is hard to deny, but those are the kind of things voters hold against you. I think he's like 60% chance of making it assuming a couple of good seasons but I don't think he'd make it now. His most comparable hitters list on Baseball-Reference is not great:
# Jose Canseco (863)
# Carlos Delgado (861)
# Manny Ramirez (845)
# Willie Stargell (837) *
# Willie McCovey (837) *
# Juan Gonzalez (834)
# Mark McGwire (826)
# Fred McGriff (819)
That's 5 non hall of famers among the top 8. not confidence inspiring.
Frank Thomas on the other hand, is a sure thing.
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