Freedom from Blog

Don't call it a comeback . . . .

Tuesday, April 22, 2008


La de da, I wonder if anyone managed to pick tonight's spread correctly? It would have been really impressive if someone had called this, say, two weeks ago. Who needs debates? or campaigning?

Now, if someone called both tonight's margin AND predicted a McCain nomination toward the end of a comment string more than a year ago, that, my friends, would ensure he never ever got invited to do political commentary on cable news.


At 6:51 AM, Blogger Frances said...

Yes, the PA outcome was very predictable. Closed Democratic primary in an old line machine politics state. Perfect for Clinton. If she had her way (here now in retrospect, now that she's discovered she's a "populist whiskey drinking fighter girl") she'd have wanted every state to decide its delegates with a closed primary.

Let me just take this moment to express my intense loathing for Hillary Clinton. I can no longer stand to watch her on television.

At 10:49 AM, Blogger tenaciousmcd said...

I look at this year much as Andy DuFresne looked at 1966 in Shawshank Redemption. We've spent a long time in Bush's prison of pious corruption, dreaming of a far-away ocean with no memory, and the only way we're getting out is by chipping away at the rock walls with the world's smallest hammer, just so that we can then dive into the sewer for an interminable crawl. In the end we'll be the nation "who crawled through a river of shit and came out clean on the other side."

In my metaphor, Hillary is the sewer pipe.

At 2:20 PM, Blogger Paul said...

Well, the real sewer will be the general election after the Democratic primaries are decided. Here the Democratic ticket will be problematic whether it be Hillary or Obama, because the same identity politics that led to the inevitable victory of Hillary in PA are the same dynamics that rule the country as a whole and those dynamics don't favor either a woman or a black (after all the Republican hammering, will Hillary or Obama realistically be able to take more than around 48% of the popular vote?). The Democrats would have done much better with Edwards or Warner, who are not only white males, but also from the South. It's a sad commentary on our country, but we are what we are. McCain will probably need to have some kind of big, big screw up or health problems to lose.

At 6:56 AM, Blogger Frances said...

If Paul is right, this is going to be a very long trip through the sewer indeed.

But I'm actually more optimistic about the general election, once the tiresome hectoring Hillary is finally dispensed with.

I mean, how can you look at the stunning outcome in Mississippi's First Congressional district (Tupelo) on Tuesday night and not feel some sense of optimism? This is a Bush +10 district. The race goes to a run-off now, but in the first round the Democrat Travis Childers came within 400 votes of winning an outright majority. And this was with more than one Democrat running in the race!

This is not an idiosyncratic race with a weak GOP candidate. The NRCC spent nearly $300k on this seat, and the DCCC spent less than half that. The fact that Dems are finding opportunities in Mississippi (and also in Louisiana) in special elections already this year is pretty strong evidence that the GOP is going to be facing some unbelievable headwinds come November

At 9:51 AM, Blogger Paul said...


I hope you're right. Presidential elections, however, seem to me to usually run on a different calculus than Congressional and Senate elections.


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