One Thing

One thing to keep in mind, whether it's about Bush's poll numbers or violence in Iraq. A bad week, an especially low point, is almost always followed by a slightly better, slightly higher number. So, a week in which 1300 people are killed in sectarian violence will almost always be followed by a less deadly week. A really low poll number, like a 34, will be followed by some better numbers.

In this age of spin, spinmeisters have learned to game this fact of life in this Universe (Emery's fifth law: The line goes up and down, not just up, not just down.) How? Minimize the low point, wait for the violence to lessen, for the poll numbers to tick up, and then claim that "things are going in the right direction."

Watch for it, people.

Update: iumike is correct to call me on this one: I can't claim credit for regression to the mean, nor can I call that "Emery's fifth law." You might think that, but Emery's fourth law is that I can.