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Don't call it a comeback . . . .

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Obligatory Football Analogy

It's all matchups, folks. Whether one team wins the championship depends on who they have to play and how well that team matches up. It's the same in politics.

Objectively, Obama is a weak candidate on paper. Against a truly appealing Democrat with (actual) experience and (actual) supporters, he'd be an also-ran, if he'd even decided to run. But against HRC, he can run up the score. The reason: HRC doesn't have a defense against the politics of hope, compellingly presented. She can't play that kind of game. (Think U of M against App State's or Oregon's spread offense.)

On the GOP side, I don't know. Romney (in his current incarnation) doesn't matchup well against McCain, in NH. But elsewhere, McCain can't play in states where the Independent vote isn't the key. If a loss in NH effectively ends the Romney campaign (its viability, anyway), then who does McCain matchup against?

The interesting matchup in a Republican primary, without Independents (or at least so many) is McCain versus Huckabee. Neither is an orthodox GOPper.

In the general . . . I think Obama matches up well against most GOP candidates. More thoughts on that, if and when it happens.

5 Comments:

At 7:22 AM, Blogger Frances said...

McCain's candidacy would be dead and buried if NH didn't occur at this point in the nomination cycle.

 
At 8:45 PM, Blogger Number Three said...

Oh, no. Maybe this matchup wasn't so great for Obama after all? Too close to call.

 
At 9:14 PM, Blogger Frances said...

I guess we get one weekend to be happy in American politics. Back to misery tomorrow?

 
At 10:36 PM, Blogger Number Three said...

Worst prediction ever.

 
At 12:03 AM, Blogger dkolata said...

Check out that turnout. Obama beat McCain. Handily.

The HRC field campaign must have been awesome. Either that or people must not have been honest with the pollsters. or some combination.

this is shaping up to be a cool race, on both sides.

 

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